Political psychology and political philosophy · University of Central Florida
Why do people believe that?
Most political beliefs are not new. Ideas about hidden powers, the will of the people, natural hierarchy, and an enchanted world have long histories, and they turn up, often recombined, in what ordinary citizens believe today. I study those ideas in the American public, from conspiracy thinking to authoritarian and democratic values, and how to measure them well. I’m an associate professor in UCF’s School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs.
What the research shows
Do conspiracy scales all measure the same thing?
Researchers often treat the leading short scales of “conspiracy mentality” as interchangeable. Tested side by side, four of them share one dominant factor, but two carry extra content: paranormal belief in one, partisanship in another. That extra content can inflate their links to specific conspiracy beliefs.
Smallpage, Jensen & Askew (2026), Frontiers in Psychology. Read the paper · Explore the interactive figure
Is conspiracy thinking its own thing?
Conspiracy, paranormal, and pseudoscientific beliefs are usually studied as separate traits. In a 2021 survey, what the three share, which we call a “romantic” mindset, predicted authoritarian and anti-democratic attitudes. What is unique to each did not predict authoritarian attitudes on its own, and the pattern held among Democrats and Republicans alike.
Smallpage, Askew, Kurlander & Rust (2023), Frontiers in Psychology. Read the paper
Do people tell pollsters what they really believe?
Polls regularly report how many people believe a given conspiracy theory, and those numbers rest on honest answers. Across seven countries, respondents who could report how many of eight statements they believed, without saying which, reported about 0.8 more than respondents asked to name them. Polls likely understate conspiracy belief.
Smallpage, Enders, Drochon & Uscinski (2023), Political Science Research and Methods. Read the paper
Do partisans know which conspiracy theories are “theirs”?
It’s easy to picture conspiracy believers as people who suspect everyone. In our survey, Democrats mostly suspected Republicans and corporations, Republicans mostly suspected Democrats and communists, and both suspected their own side far less. In a second study, members of both parties largely agreed on which party “owns” each conspiracy theory, their own party’s included.
Smallpage, Enders & Uscinski (2017), Research & Politics. Read the paper
Writing for the public
Conspiracy thinking is only dangerous when it mixes with extreme partisanship
LSE US Politics and Policy blog · 2018
Racial prejudice, not populism or authoritarianism, predicts support for Trump over Clinton
Washington Post, Monkey Cage · 2016
Obama was right: Conspiracy theorists are more likely to oppose gun control
Washington Post, Monkey Cage · 2016
Interviews, talks, and collaborations
Journalists, event organizers, and researchers: I’m glad to hear from you.